DOWNLOADABLE INSIGHT BRIEF

Demographic Realities and Global Population Trends

Ensuring choice, equity, and access in an era of transition

By FP Analytics, with support from the Population Institute

JULY 2025

The global population is projected to peak at around 10.3 billion and gradually decline by the end of the century. While more than half of all countries now have fertility rates below the replacement level, fertility rates remain high in sub-Saharan Africa and other low- and middle-income countries—driving continued global population growth through 2050. Declining fertility, shaped by rising education, urbanization, and expanded opportunities for women, is prompting many governments to reconsider long-held assumptions about economic growth and demographic stability. This Insight Brief by FP Analytics, produced with support from the Population Institute, explores the implications of these demographic trends, the risks of reactionary policies aimed at reversing fertility declines, and the urgent need to center reproductive rights and autonomy in population policy debates. Download the Insight Brief.

Bibliography
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Alvarez, P. (2022, June 17). What does the global decline of fertility rate look like? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2022/06/global-decline-of-fertility-rates-visualised/

Bajaj, N. et al. (2025). Challenging Pronatalism Is Key to Advancing Reproductive Rights and a Sustainable Population. The Journal of Population and Sustainability, Vol 7(1).https://doi.org/10.3197/JPS.63799953906861

Dotti, V. (2024). No country for young people? The rise of anti-immigration politics in ageing societies. Journal of Public Economics, Vol 238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105199

FP Analytics. (2024). Ensuring Global Abortion Access in an Evolving Geopolitical Landscape. https://fpanalytics.foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/29/securing-womens-abortion-access/

Kavanaugh, M. et al. (2024). Has the fall of Roe changed contraceptive access and use? New research from four US states offers critical insights. Health Affairs Scholar, Vol 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1093/haschl/qxae016

Madgavkar, A. et al. (2025, January 15). Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality

UNFPA. (2025). The Real Fertility Crisis: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world. https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/swp25-layout-en-v250609-web.pdf

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). Revision of World Population Prospects. https://population.un.org/wpp/

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2021). World Population Policies 2021: Policies related to fertility. UN DESA/POP/2021/TR/NO. 1. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2021_wpp-fertility_policies.pdf

Demographic Realities and Global Population Trends

Bibliography
+

Alvarez, P. (2022, June 17). What does the global decline of fertility rate look like? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2022/06/global-decline-of-fertility-rates-visualised/

Bajaj, N. et al. (2025). Challenging Pronatalism Is Key to Advancing Reproductive Rights and a Sustainable Population. The Journal of Population and Sustainability, Vol 7(1).https://doi.org/10.3197/JPS.63799953906861

Dotti, V. (2024). No country for young people? The rise of anti-immigration politics in ageing societies. Journal of Public Economics, Vol 238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105199

FP Analytics. (2024). Ensuring Global Abortion Access in an Evolving Geopolitical Landscape. https://fpanalytics.foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/29/securing-womens-abortion-access/

Kavanaugh, M. et al. (2024). Has the fall of Roe changed contraceptive access and use? New research from four US states offers critical insights. Health Affairs Scholar, Vol 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1093/haschl/qxae016

Madgavkar, A. et al. (2025, January 15). Dependency and depopulation? Confronting the consequences of a new demographic reality. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality

UNFPA. (2025). The Real Fertility Crisis: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world. https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/swp25-layout-en-v250609-web.pdf

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). Revision of World Population Prospects. https://population.un.org/wpp/

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2021). World Population Policies 2021: Policies related to fertility. UN DESA/POP/2021/TR/NO. 1. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/undesa_pd_2021_wpp-fertility_policies.pdf

United Nations Population Division (2024). Family Planning Indicators 2024. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/data/family-planning-indicators

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